By Al Giordano

While pundits speculate on Obama's choice for Secretary of State (and there's some considerable backpedaling going on from yesterday's media fart) here's something for all sides to chew on... some hard historical data on how long they last.

President George W. Bush began in 2001 with high profile and popular Secretary of State in Colin Powell... who in in the beginning of Bush's second term in 2005 was replaced by Condoleezza Rice.

President Bill Clinton began in 1993 with an experienced State Department hand in Warren Christopher (who had twice briefly served in as acting secretary under President Carter)... who at the beginning of Clinton's second term was replaced by Madeleine Albright.

President George H. W. Bush served only one term beginning in 1989 and his good buddy James Baker lasted most of until August of 1992 (during the unsuccessful reelection campaign). Lawrence Eagleberger replaced him.

President Ronald Reagan began his term in 1981 with former presidential campaign rival Alexander Haig as Secretary of State. But after 18 months Haig realized that his wish for Kissinger-like powers (his mentor and predecessor had basically run foreign policy during President Nixon's weakest years and during President Ford's caretaker presidency) was not-to-be and Haig resigned in disgust. He was replaced by George Schultz.

President Jimmy Carter began his term in 1977 nominating Cyrus Vance as Secretary of State. Three years into the term Senator Edmund Muskie replaced him.

President Gerald Ford inherited Henry Kissinger as Secretary of State from President Nixon in 1974, but only served two years as president.

President Richard Nixon began his term in 1969 with William Rogers as Secretary of State. Nine months into his second term - too embattled to govern - Nixon replaced him with Henry Kissinger and essentially let him run US foreign policy.

Secretary of State Dean Rusk was the last Secretary of State to survive two terms (and two presidents: Kennedy and Johnson, from 1961 to 1969). However, his legacy is disgraced by his role in the Vietnam War.

President Dwight Eisenhower appointed John Foster Dulles as Secretary of State in 1953. Dulles lasted six years and then was replaced by Christian Herter.

President Harry Truman had three Secretaries of State over eight years, from 1945 to 1953. President Franklin Roosevelt had two over 13 years, so on and so forth...

I'll add that the only one of them that had a clue about human rights was Cyrus Vance, who, years prior, as undersecretary of defense had urged President Johnson to pull US troops out of Vietnam.

So what'll it be Mr. President-elect?

A Vance?

Or a Haig?

Also: Don't miss Field Hand Allan Brauer's diary at The Narcosphere about what's next after Proposition 8.

By Al Giordano

The speculation over Senator Hillary Clinton as a possible Secretary of State in the Obama administration did not begin - as many are reporting - with Andrea Mitchell's report yesterday on NBC, based, she said, on "two Obama advisors."

(Obama has more than 700 titled advisors on foreign policy alone. There's good reason why they received a memo that instructed "do not under any circumstances speak to the press." You can't shoot a cannon ball up Pennsylvania Avenue these days without hitting two or three of them, but that doesn't put them in the loop, and the ones that are in the loop aren't talking to Andrea Mitchell or anybody in the press about inside information.)

No, it was not Mitchell that first floated this Hindenburg balloon. It was former Clinton White House aide (and reliable media spinner for all agendas Clinton) George Stephanopoulos on who first dropped HRC's name for Foggy Bottom last week. ABC's Jake Tapper reminds:

George Stephanopoulos reported Clinton's name being in the mix last week on Good Morning America

The whole thing is a media freak show being served up by members of the Clinton factions in the Democratic party and obliged by a national media (some of them also Clinton noisemakers) in search of a story. The speculation is not because Senator Clinton wants the job, but because her people so desperately want to muddy the waters and throw up a roadblock to either New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson or Massachusetts Senator John Kerry - two of the leading contenders - serving in the post, whom they consider turncoats for having endorsed Obama vs. Clinton earlier this year.

After Richardson backed Obama, Clinton advisor James Carville called him a "Judas."

Kerry's earlier endorsement of Obama likewise brought out the knives:

"And he was dead to us," said one prominent Clinton supporter who is, in his words, "not authorized to trash Kerry on the record."

"Aren't Two Cabinet Posts Enough?"

The backbiting last Spring was particularly vicious against Richardson:

"Look, I think that everyone has their endorsers," said senior Clinton strategist Mark Penn, adding - with a little huff - "I think New Mexico is a state that, actually, we won."

"The time that he could have been effective has long since passed," he continued. "I don't think it is a significant endorsement in this environment."

...The AP reported that President Clinton at one point angrily asked Richardson, "What, isn't two cabinet posts enough?" Richardson was energy secretary under Clinton and U.S. ambassador the to U.N.

Richardson appeared on CNN this afternoon and was asked to recall his conversation with Clinton over his decision to endorse Obama. "Well, let's say it was a difficult conversation. But, you know, I resent the fact that the Clinton people are now saying that my endorsement is too late because I only can help with Texans - with Texas and Hispanics, implying that that's my only value. You know, that's typical of some of his advisers that kind of turned me off."

And now you see the New York media-centric Clinton noise machine setting up the spin essentially to screw Obama whichever way he goes:

Analyst Paul Light of New York University's John Brademas Center for the Study of Congress said picking Clinton would mean Obama was serious about reaching across the party divide.

On the other hand, he said: "To put her in the competition with several others and pick somebody other than Hillary Clinton after you've floated her name is to have a repeat of the spring and summer division and raise questions about Obama's seriousness about healing the division within the party."

(ABC's Tapper quoted another member of the noise machine: "'Clinton is the gold standard around the world,' said Chris Lehane...")

The US Department of State's budget for FY 2009 is $11.4 billion dollars.

What makes anybody think that somebody that so mismanaged her presidential campaign and its finances - still millions in debt - is going to be tapped to manage an 11 billion dollar budget with Embassies across the globe?

President-elect Obama is going to meet, in Chicago, on Monday with Republican Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham: the same courtesy he's reportedly given Senator Clinton. Shall we read into it that one of them will become Secretary of State? (No, we won't, because their people in the media won't be pushing such rumors.)

The conflicts of interest of former President Bill Clinton and his Clinton Global Initiative - a "charity" with a $208 million dollar surplus, undisclosed donors, many of them foreign - signify that before Senator Clinton could hold the post of Secretary of State, Bill Clinton and Terry McAuliffe would have to disband their own "shadow state department" that is the Clinton Global Initiative.

As Matthew Yglesias asked aloud in the LA Times last year:

What's more, presidential foundations -- unlike political campaigns -- can accept contributions from foreign citizens and even foreign governments. So, although Hillary Clinton is barred from cashing a $100 check from David Beckham, on the theory that he might be attempting to undermine U.S. sovereignty (or force decent Americans to play soccer), Bill is free to have his annual meeting co-sponsored by the country of Oman, whose interests surely don't overlap 100% with those of the U.S.

The real issue here is that the conflict of interest created by the Clinton Global Initiative rules out Senator Clinton for Secretary of State. The Obama job application form is very specific about unearthing potential conflicts by spouses and "family members."

Does anybody really believe that Obama will say to all his job applicants that there's a double standard, one set of requirements for them and another for the Clintons?

The Obama administration-in-waiting has now pushed back a little bit against the freak show:

Senior officials with President-elect Barack Obama's transition team said late Thursday that Sen. Hillary Clinton would be an asset to the new administration, but declined to confirm reports she was under consideration for secretary of state.

All this grating and annoying noise is able to occur because the national media is thirsty for a story, any story, to make itself relevant to the transition.

The saddest of all the spin yesterday came in how Keith Olbermann on MSNBC "took one for the team" in order to bolster the credibility of his network's Andrea Mitchell and her vague report:

That’s a far cry from Keith’s greatest shining moment, last May, when he spoke of all the things Senator Clinton has said that can be forgiven “but this we cannot forgive.” View it and weep for the state of the media in 2008:

The freak show is not about putting a Clinton into the State Department.

It's an effort by the vindictive Clinton organization to stop Richardson or Kerry from serving in that post.

And it has the effect of underscoring why either of them would be so far superior to Senator Clinton to effectively turn the page on US foreign policy.

By Al Giordano

President-elect Barack Obama announces he'll resign from the US Senate as of Sunday, with these words:

"It has been one of the highest honors and privileges of my life to have served the people of Illinois in the United States Senate.  In a state that represents the crossroads of a nation, I have met so many men and women who've taken different journeys, but hold common hopes for their children's future.  It is these Illinois families and their stories that will stay with me as I leave the United States Senate and begin the hard task of fulfilling the simple hopes and common dreams of all Americans as our nation's next President."

In addition to the many reasons to want to focus on the executive job ahead (and not get mangled in the final weeks of the current Democratic caucus in the upper branch; the Lieberman conundrum to be voted on Tuesday and other sticky wickets), there's another reason for the move: It allows Illinois' next US Senator (to be appointed by the state's Democratic governor) to get a step up on seniority over the incoming class of two Udalls, a Shaheen, a Warner, a Hagan, a Merkley, probably a Begich, quite possibly a Franken and maybe even a Martin in the Democratic caucus.

There's all kinds of speculation over who will be appointed, with an eye toward reelection in 2010. US Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. clearly wants it. Some Democrats worry that his family name will make it more difficult for Democrats to hold the seat in a statewide vote. Obama best friend Valerie Jarrett has taken herself out of the running. Keep an eye on US Rep. Jan Schakowsky (in the photo above), and, really, in terms of sheer legislative talent and conscience she'd fast become a major player in the Senate.

The understandable suggestion that Obama's exit from the Senate leaves the body without a single African-American puts a responsibility on embattled Gov. Rod Blagojevich to appoint a new senator of that demographic may be eased somewhat by the following two-step: The announcement of Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts as the next Secretary of State followed by an immediate announcement by Gov. Deval Patrick of the Bay State that he'll seek Kerry's seat. (In Massachusetts, Mitt Romney's former governorship gave the Democratic state legislature the willies over a possible senate appointment, and stripped the governor of appointing powers: instead, a special election would be called in 150 days.)  However, Obama's having moved the Illinois process forward by so many weeks makes it unlikely that those two steps could occur before Blagojevich makes his call. And there's no guarantee that Patrick would win his party primary in Massachusetts if he did seek the post.

(Just to get yer brains spinning: A similar set of musical chairs could occur later down the line with an appointment to the US Supreme Court of US Senator Hillary Clinton and a subsequent self-appointment by New York Gov. David Paterson.)

Whomever gets the Illinois seat will now move six, seven, eight, or nine steps ahead in the seniority line which will pay off in better committee appointments and a faster track to chairmanships, Obama's parting gift to the Land of Lincoln.

Meanwhile: Fieldhand Suzy Shure sends in this very funny joke:

One sunny day in late January, 2009 an old man approached the White House from Across Pennsylvania Avenue, where he'd been sitting on a park bench.

He spoke to the U.S. Marine standing guard and said, "I would like to go in and meet with President Bush."

The Marine looked at the man and said, "Sir, Mr. Bush is no longer president and no longer resides here."

The old man said, "Okay", and walked away.'

The following day, the same man approached the White House and said to the same Marine, "I would like to go in and meet with President Bush."

The Marine again told the man, "Sir, as I said yesterday, Mr. Bush is no longer president and no longer resides here."

The man thanked him and, again, just walked away.

The third day, the same man approached the White House and spoke to the very same U.S. Marine, saying "I would like to go in and meet with President Bush."

The Marine, understandably agitated at this point, looked at the man and said, "Sir, this is the third day in a row you have been here asking to speak to Mr. Bush. I've told you already that Mr. Bush is no longer the president and no longer resides here. Don't you understand?"

The old man looked at the Marine and said, "Oh, I understand. I just love hearing it."

The Marine snapped to attention, saluted, and said, "See you tomorrow, Sir."

Update: Make that a possible ten steps ahead in line for the next Illinois senator: Joe Biden will at some point be replaced in his Delaware seat by an appointee from the state's current or pending Democratic governor, depending on when he makes the leap.

By Al Giordano

We went to Wisconsin on October 23. The youngster in this video, J.D. Stier, stood up and said that after Election day he would send out an email and begin organizing the president the day after the vote.

He kept his word.

I think that the thing I like best about this video is that I'm not in it, and that means that the struggle has its own roots and is growing on its own accord.

Here's a flashback from three weeks ago (can you believe that it was an election ago?). And you can see J.D. make some promises, and then comply with them:

And from the first video, you can see the sprouting of the seeds that you've already begun to harvest in Wisconsin.

So many states. So little time.

Coming soon to your city or town? Everything is possible now. Please don't drop the ball at this moment in history. What they're doing in Madison, you can do where you live. It would be political malpractice not to do it.

Update: Micah Sifry of TechPresident.com - who joined us in Chicago last week - will be part of a panel on Thursday, November 20 in Washington DC: 2008: A Great Web Campaign? Or the Greatest? Perhaps some DC area Field Hands could report it for us?

By Al Giordano

I just got off the phone listening-in to the "pad and pen only" press conference by Obama-Biden Transition Co-Chair John Podesta. It lasted almost an hour and I'm sure the rest of the media will report it extensively.

The first announcement contained some new rules:

•          Federal Lobbyists cannot contribute financially to the transition.
•          Federal lobbyists are prohibited from any lobbying during their work with the transition.
•          If someone has lobbied in the last 12 months, they are prohibited from working in the fields of policy on which they lobbied.
•          If someone becomes a lobbyist after working on the Transition, they are prohibited from lobbying the Administration  for 12 months  on  matters on which they worked.
•          A gift ban that is aggressive in reducing the influence of special interests.

These were described as the most stringent rules ever on a transition team to fulfill Obama's campaign pledges to "change the way Washington works and end the influence of lobbyists."

The transition team "will employ 450 people, with a budget of $12 million," with offices in Washington DC and Chicago. More than 100 security clearances have already been granted to team members by federal law enforcement.

Later this week, the transition will announce the members of "agency review teams" that will evaluate "over one hundred departments, agencies and commissions" to provide incoming cabinet and sub-cabinet officials with information on them. Their names will be posted at change.gov. The transition will be "the strictest and most far reaching" and the "most open and transparent in history."

Here are some additional points I gleaned from the question and answer session:

Obama won't attend the G-20 Economic Summit: "We only have one president at a time," said Podesta. "The president-elect will not be meeting with leaders who are coming to Washington. He will be in Chicago." In some cases, top aides will meet with foreign leaders while they are in DC.

Don't Expect Any Cabinet Nominations Until December: "No president other than George Herbert Walker Bush has named a cabinet member before December, going back to the Kennedy administration." Obama himself will make those announcements, mostly from Chicago. Special early attention is being given to "the economic team and the national security team." There is extensive vetting going on (no doubt Podesta remembers how President Clinton's first and second nominations for Attorney General - Zoe Baird and Kimba Wood - crashed upon the discovery that each had hired undocumented workers, which also served to mire that administration in media turmoil at the precise moment when it had wanted to hit the ground running on policy). Obama will meet with each of his cabinet secretaries in person before approving them. Podesta made a joke about the press doing "stakeouts" to try and find out with whom he is meeting.

Expect more than one token Republican: President-elect Obama "wants to see people who are not just Democrats in office, to reach out and have Republicans and Independents not just on a token level," and that will extend to sub-cabinet posts as well.

No Quid Pro Quo on Colombian Trade Deal: Podesta pushed back at press reports that President Bush had suggested exchanging his support for an economic recovery package for the US-Colombia trade agreement, which, Podesta iterated, "should be dealt with on its own merits."

Economic Recovery-Stimulus Package Will Be First Order of Business: If the previous Congress hasn't passed one already.

Every Executive Order by Bush is Under Review: Those that Obama promised during the campaign to rescind, will be eliminated immediately.

"He Intends to Close the Facility at Guantanamo": In those words.

Withdrawing from Iraq: The policy "will be consistent with what he said in the campaign."

In sum, the approach is extremely deliberative and organized to adhere exactly to promises made during the campaign. There won't likely be any "Trojan Horse" attempts to spring unannounced initiatives in the early days of the administration. No real surprise there, to anyone that has been studying Obama carefully for clues as to how he will govern.

By Al Giordano

Here's a little taste of Chicago last Thursday night. Enjoy.

(Want to bring this to your town, city or campus? Send an email to Chris Fee at bazarov3@gmail.com, and we'll be in touch with you very soon.)

Update: We almost missed a milestone. Over the weekend, Kim of Chicago became Field Hand #600 (and seven more new Field Hands have signed up since.)

Update II: Hat tip to Andrew Sullivan, will.i.am's "A New Day":

Well done.